A state-by-state overview of whether these are federally regulated products or bets the states can ban.
A circuit is a regional federal appeals court. There are twelve, each covering a block of states, and a ruling from one binds every state underneath it. That is why a single decision can settle the question for nine states at once, and why two circuits disagreeing sends the issue to the Supreme Court.
Select a state for its cases, dates, sources and what you can trade there.
The most recent decision to move the map.
The Ninth Circuit ruled 3–0 that Nevada can apply its gambling laws to Kalshi, and also rejected appeals by Crypto.com and Robinhood. The panel decided more than preemption: it held the contracts are not swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act. In April the Third Circuit reached the opposite conclusion for New Jersey. Kalshi says it will seek further review. Separately, the CFTC’s first rule on these contracts is still unfinished: the comment period closed on 27 July with no timeline for a final version.
Decisions that would change the map.
The state lost in the Third Circuit in April and has been seeking review since, obtaining extensions from Justice Alito while it waited for another circuit to disagree. The Ninth Circuit has now done so, meaning New Jersey can point to a live conflict rather than a prediction of one. If the Court takes a case, one ruling settles all fifty states. If it declines, the answer keeps depending on where you are.
Neal Katyal appeared for Kalshi. A ruling for Maryland would put the states 2–1 on appeal and strengthen the case for Supreme Court review. One for Kalshi would even the split at 2–2.
Unusual because the district courts below split against each other, Tennessee granting Kalshi an injunction and Ohio refusing one, so a single ruling resolves both. Reporting described the panel as sceptical of Kalshi.
Filed after Kalshi lost twice in the district court. No argument date set. A fourth circuit weighing in would make the split harder for the Supreme Court to leave alone.
More than 1,000 filings came in and the agency has given no timeline since. A final rule placing sports contracts within CFTC jurisdiction would give the platforms a federal rule to point to; one that excludes them would remove the basis for most of these cases. 44 attorneys general have said they will litigate either way.
The Schiff–Curtis bill would bar any CFTC-registered venue from listing a contract resembling a sports bet or casino game, answering the question by statute rather than by litigation. It has not moved out of committee.
Several states are still arguing about which courthouse hears the case at all. Washington was sent back to state court and the Ninth Circuit refused to freeze that; Michigan’s remand motion is pending. Where these land matters, because the platforms have generally done better in federal court than in state court.
6% of operators’ net trading fees from state residents, against 23% for sports betting operators. The first test of whether taxing prediction markets, rather than fighting them, is a model other states copy.
Crypto contracts with no expiry date.
The CFTC issued an order approving KalshiEX's BTCPERP for listing by a designated contract market as a futures contract. It has no fixed expiration date. A periodic funding rate paid between long and short positions replaces expiry as the mechanism keeping it near the Bitcoin spot price.
This is distinct from the "perpetual-style" futures Coinbase launched in July 2025, which carry five-year expiries and add a funding rate to a long-dated contract. Those were a workaround from a period when no non-expiring contract had been approved.
The order is narrow. Perps referencing other asset classes, including equities, precious metals and agricultural products, must go through case-by-case Commission review under Regulation 40.3 rather than self-certification. Kalshi opened perps to U.S. retail traders in June.
The approval is being challenged. On 18 June 2026 CME Group sued the CFTC in federal court in Washington, arguing that because perps exchange periodic funding payments between the two sides, Dodd-Frank makes them swaps rather than futures — a different regime for clearing, reporting and margin. The CFTC called the suit frivolous. No state has gone after perps; this fight is entirely federal. Lowenstein Sandler · CNBC
Hyperliquid runs most on-chain perps volume and blocks U.S. traffic at its front end, and its terms of use bar U.S. persons. The block is geographic, not identity-based: there is no verification step to pass. This is why it appears nowhere in the platform view — no state can name a venue that does not take its residents.
It is trying to change that. In February 2026 it funded a Washington policy arm with one million HYPE tokens, and in July it petitioned the CFTC jointly with Phantom to confirm that publishing on-chain software does not by itself require registration. Chair Michael Selig told the House Agriculture Committee in April he wants to bring decentralised perpetual markets onshore, and in August the president said the agency was working on a route. No filing or approval has followed. Hyperliquid Guide · TechFlow · Crypto Briefing